Global Transition Dynamics: Unfolding the Full Social Implications of National Decision Pathways

This white paper proposes a new holistic approach to analysis of the national and global development that builds on advances in the mathematics of complexity, methods of probabilistic risk assessment, and techniques for fast computation and interactive simulation. Integrated into a composite analysis technique, these advances raise an unprecedented new possibility for projecting the future implications—social, economic, environmental, human health, political, and technical—of major societal development activities and technology programs for nations individually and the world as a whole. Taken together, they promise both a real-time outlook and a future perspective on the spectrum of outcomes that might result from alternative national decision pathways. Such projection capability could reveal the development options, results, and implications for any strategy for any type of nation, whether primitive, underdeveloped, developing, or industrial. Forcing functions, critical junctures, and pinch points could be identified so that scarce development resources can be allocated to maximize benefit and minimize unintended consequences. The full realization of this next step in analysis technology will require several years of dedicated international effort, but the need is urgent and the potential payoff great. The technical—and organizational—underpinnings for such a holistic analysis approach have been demonstrated. It remains for us to build from them a global tool for a better future. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 [email protected]; EPRI, P.O. Box 10412, Palo Alto, CA 94303. 2 [email protected]; University of Minnesota, 1300 South Second Street, #510, Minneapolis, MN 55454, phone: 612-624-5747, Fax: 612-624-7510